一带一路·拥抱非洲，为什么非洲市场对中国私营企业至关重要
近年来，在“一带一路”倡议等计划下，中国已成为非洲最大的贸易伙伴和债权国。
China has become Africa’s largest trading partner and creditor in recent years under programmes such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
目前，中非双方均面临全球经济放缓的压力，两国经济关系开启新篇章。
Now, China-Africa economic relations are entering a new chapter as both face a global economic slowdown.
中国私营部门现在可能会引领非洲的贸易和投资，而非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）等新举措将为中国企业进入更大的统一非洲市场提供机会。
China’s private sector is now likely to lead trade and investment in Africa, while new initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will offering Chinese businesses access to a larger unified African market.
在过去 20 年中，中国已成为撒哈拉以南非洲最大的双边贸易伙伴。根据国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 的数据，该地区目前约有 20% 的出口流向中国，非洲约有 16% 的进口来自中国。2023 年，这一数字达到创纪录的2820 亿美元。初级商品（金属、矿产品和燃料）约占非洲对华出口的五分之三，而非洲通常进口中国制成品、电子产品和机械。
Over the last 20 years, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner. Around 20% of the region’s exports now go to China and about 16% of Africa’s imports come from China, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This amounted to a record $282 billion in total trade volume in 2023. Primary commodities — metals, mineral products and fuel — represent about three fifths of Africa’s exports to China, while it typically imports Chinese manufactured goods, electronics and machinery.
与此同时，中国也已成为非洲最大的双边债权国，为非洲国家提供了基础设施、采矿和能源融资的新来源。2005 年之前，中国在撒哈拉以南非洲外债总额中所占份额不到 2%，但到 2021 年增长到约 17%，即 1340 亿美元。
At the same time, China has also emerged as the largest bilateral creditor to Africa, providing African countries with a new source of infrastructure, mining and energy financing. China’s share of total sub-Saharan African external public debt was less than 2% before 2005 but grew to about 17%, or $134 billion, by 2021.
此外，中国对外直接投资（FDI）在过去二十年中大幅增加。2003年，中国每年对非洲的FDI约为7500万美元。2022年，这一数字达到50亿美元的峰值，约占该地区FDI总额的4.4%。2013年启动的全球发展战略“一带一路”倡议（BRI）是中国对外直接投资的框架，主要针对交通、能源和采矿基础设施。
Moreover, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased significantly over the last two decades. In 2003, the annual FDI flow from China to Africa was approximately $75 million. It peaked at $5 billion in 2022, representing about 4.4% of the region’s total FDI. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global development strategy launched in 2013, is the framework for China's FDI directed primarily towards transportation, energy and mining infrastructure.
2020年和2021年，中国和非洲继续通过“一带一路”倡议和中非合作论坛（2000年成立的伙伴关系平台）框架内的各项战略规划和倡议加强经济合作。该合作计划的重点是将“一带一路”倡议与非洲联盟的《2063年议程》对接，“2063年议程”是未来50年非洲大陆社会经济转型的战略框架。
In 2020 and 2021, China and Africa continued to strengthen their economic cooperation through various strategic plans and initiatives within the frameworks of the BRI and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a partnership platform established in 2000. This cooperation plan is focused on aligning the BRI with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 — a strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over the next 50 years.
该合作计划优先改善非洲各地的基础设施连通性，以促进贸易和经济一体化。它还旨在加强中国与非洲国家之间的贸易便利化、金融一体化和政策协调。后者将确保发展战略协调一致、相互促进。
The cooperation plan prioritizes improving infrastructure connectivity across Africa to facilitate trade and economic integration. It also aims to enhance trade facilitation, financial integration and policy coordination between China and African countries. The latter will ensure development strategies are harmonized and mutually reinforcing.
然而，近年来，中国对非洲的投资和贷款有所减少。这种转变归因于多种因素，包括中国经济增长放缓以及对更可持续的发展模式的渴望。因此，2022 年新增贷款承诺总额仅为 9.955 亿美元，而2016 年的最高水平为 285 亿美元。在 2021 年 11 月举行的上一届中非合作论坛上，中国宣布向非洲提供 400 亿美元的资金承诺，较 2018 年承诺的 600 亿美元大幅下降。这一下降中约有一半是由于基础设施贷款减少。
However, China's investments and loans in Africa have declined in recent years. This shift has been attributed to various factors including a slowdown in China’s economic growth and its desire for a more sustainable development model. Consequently, total new loan commitments in 2022 were only $995.5 million compared to a high of $28.5 billion in 2016. And at the last FOCAC held in November 2021, China announced a $40 billion financial commitment to Africa, a significant decrease from the $60 billion pledged in 2018. About half of this decrease was due to a fall in infrastructure lending.
未来十年，中国私营部门而非国有企业很可能会引领非洲的贸易和投资。在非洲投资的3000家中国企业中，超过70%是私营企业。非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）可能会通过促进区域价值链的增长来加速这一趋势，为中国企业提供进入更大统一的非洲市场的机会。欧盟单一市场也取得了类似的成果——中国现在是欧盟最大的外部进口伙伴。
In the decade ahead, China’s private sector, rather than its state-run enterprises, will likely lead trade and investment in Africa. Of the 3,000 Chinese enterprises that are invested in Africa, more than 70% are private sector businesses. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is likely to accelerate this trend by promoting the growth of regional value chains, offering Chinese businesses access to a larger unified African market. A similar outcome was realized with the EU’s single market – China is now the EU’s largest external import partner.
非洲大陆自由贸易区于 2021 年正式启动，旨在打造一个单一市场，预计到 2030 年，该市场人口将增长至 17 亿，消费者和企业支出将达到 6.7 万亿美元。这项优惠贸易协定将增加国际出口和非洲内部贸易，特别是在农业和绿色技术矿产领域。这将为当地和全球企业进入非洲大陆的新市场并进行扩张创造机会。非洲大陆自由贸易区首个私营部门行动计划于 2024 年 1 月在世界经济论坛年会上启动。
Officially launched in 2021, the AfCFTA creates a single market projected to grow to 1.7 billion people and $6.7 trillion in consumer and business spending by 2030. The preferential trade agreement will increase international exports and intra-African trade, particularly in agriculture and green technology minerals. This will unlock opportunities for local and global businesses to enter and expand throughout new markets across the continent. The first private sector action plan for the AfCFTA was launched at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in January 2024.
为了发挥这一巨大潜力，两个地区必须优先加强非洲大陆自由贸易区和一带一路倡议之间的协调。投资应以促进该地区的工业化和制造业计划以及加强贸易连通性为目标。在 2023 年 10 月举行的一带一路论坛上，中国政府表示，一带一路倡议的下一阶段将“小而精”，更加注重绿色发展和数字经济。
To realize this immense potential, both regions must prioritize greater coordination between the AfCFTA and the BRI. Investments should be targeted to catalyze the region’s industrialisation and manufacturing plans, and to enhance trade connectivity. At a BRI Forum in October 2023, the Chinese government said the next phase of the BRI will be “small yet smart”, with an increased focus on green development and the digital economy.
更好的协调和协同将确保非洲和中国的互利和可持续发展。非洲各国部长和商界领袖将于 6 月在中国举行新领军者年会，以推动区域合作与协调的进展。这些讨论将侧重于巩固迄今形成的势头，同时在地缘政治和经济风险不断增加的情况下寻求增长。
Better coordination and synergy will ensure mutual benefits and sustainable growth for Africa and China. Ministers and business leaders from Africa are convening in China for the Annual Meeting of the New Champions in June to advance progress in regional cooperation and coordination. These discussions will focus on building on the momentum created to date, while also finding growth amid increasing geopolitical and economic risk.
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来源：中非商机
