出海非洲·全球铜荒，1000万吨巨大缺口，非洲产量却连年增长！
2023年全球主要铜生产国为智利、秘鲁、刚果民主共和国、中国和美国，合计占全球产量的 59%，约2150万吨。在经济复苏和市场投机的推动下，铜价飙升，达到每吨约10,000美元。高盛等投资银行预计，由于从2024年开始持续出现供应短缺，铜价将进一步上涨。非洲，特别是刚果民主共和国和赞比亚，也正在成为铜生产的重要参与者，有潜力填补日益扩大的供应缺口，预计到2030年，供应缺口将达到1000万公吨。
The leading copper producers globally in 2023 were Chile, Peru, the DRC, China, and the United States, together accounting for 59% of worldwide output, or around 21.5 million tonnes. Amid economic recovery and market speculation, copper prices surged, hitting about $10,000 per ton. Investment banks, like Goldman Sachs, anticipate further price increases due to persistent supply deficits expected from 2024. Africa, particularly the DRC and Zambia, is also emerging as a significant player in copper production, with the potential to fill the growing supply gap projected to reach 10 million metric tons by 2030.
根据美国地质调查局的数据，2023年五大铜生产国依次为智利、秘鲁、刚果民主共和国、中国和美国。这些国家合计生产了全球约 59% 的铜，约 2150 万吨。
According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, the top five largest copper producers in 2023 were Chile, Peru, the DRC, China, and the United States, in that order.Collectively, those nations produced about 59% of the global copper production, or approximately 21.5 million tonnes.
近期，铜价一度达到每吨 10,000 美元左右，高盛等投资银行警告称，铜价供应压力正在加剧。高盛将铜价年底目标价从每吨 10,000 美元上调至 12,000 美元。
Recently, copper traded about $10,000 a ton with investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, to warn of intensifying supply stress of the commodity. Goldman raised its year-end price target for copper to $12,000 a ton from $10,000.
该银行的分析师（包括尼古拉斯·斯诺登 (Nicholas Snowdon)）在一份报告中写道：“我们继续预测，从 2024 年起，金属短缺将无限期且不断增加。”
“We continue to forecast a shift into open-ended and mounting metal deficits from 2024 onwards,” the bank’s analysts, including Nicholas Snowdon, wrote in a note.
到 2024 年，随着经济复苏迹象出现，以及运往冶炼厂的原料铜供应出现紧张迹象，铜价已上涨 16%。
Already in 2024, copper is up 16% amid signs of economic recovery, and flashes of supply tightness of the raw copper materials shipped to smelters.
投机在价格上涨中发挥了一定作用。投机者押注铜在新兴技术中的关键作用将使其在未来的价值远高于现在。铜矿商几乎没有得到投资，而且正在开发的矿山太少，这进一步加深了他们对供应受限的信念。投机者购买铜期货，这直接影响当前价格，也间接影响投资者和交易员的情绪。
Speculation has a role in the price uptick. Speculators are placing bets that its critical role in emerging technologies will make it significantly more valuable in the future than it is today. Copper miners have received little investment and there are too few mines under development which adds to their conviction of a constrained supply. Speculators buy copper futures which impacts current prices directly, and also indirectly by helping to shape investor and trader sentiment.
一些专家预计，到 2050 年，铜的需求将增长 11.1倍。电动汽车的普及是乐观情绪的主要驱动力，因为每辆电动汽车都可能包含超过一英里长的铜线。同期，为扩大全球电网，对铜的需求可能会增加 4.8 倍。
Some experts anticipate an 11.1 times demand increase in copper by 2050. EV adoption is a main driver of the optimism as they can contain more than a mile of copper wiring, each. Demand for copper to expand the global electricity grid could increase by 4.8 times in the same period.
非洲国家铜产量迅速增加，尤其是刚果民主共和国，该国铜产量在20世纪90年代刚刚起步，如今已发展成为第三大铜生产国。
African countries have rapidly increased copper production, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo which had a nascent copper production number in the 1990s to becoming the third-largest copper producer today.
麦肯锡和俄勒冈集团的多份报告都指出，到 2030 年，铜供应缺口预计将接近 1000 万公吨。
By 2030, the copper supply gap is projected to approach 10 million metric tons as highlighted in numerous reports from McKinsey and The Oregon Group.
非洲铜产量排名前八的国家是刚果民主共和国、赞比亚、摩洛哥、南非、厄立特里亚、毛里塔尼亚、津巴布韦和纳米比亚。刚果民主共和国的铜产量为250万吨，赞比亚为80万吨。此后，产量急剧下降，非洲第三大铜生产国摩洛哥的铜产量仅为 3.6 万吨。
The top 8 copper producing countries in Africa, ranked by production, were the DRC, Zambia, Morocco, South Africa, Eritrea, Mauritania, Zimbabwe, and Namibia. The DRC produced 2.5 million tons, and Zambia 800,000 tons. From there, production figures drop dramatically with the third largest producer in Africa, Morocco, only producing 36,000 metric tons.
非洲约占全球产量的21%，特别是刚果民主共和国和赞比亚拥有世界上一些最大、品位最高的铜矿。
Africa accounted for around 21% of global production worldwide，particularly the DRC and Zambia hold some of the world's largest and highest-grade copper deposits.
非洲正在进行投资以改善开采。一个例子是艾芬豪矿业的 Kamoa-Kakula 项目，该项目在 2023 年的产量达到 250 万公吨。艾芬豪为该项目分配了超过10亿美元的投资资金。
Investments are being made to improve extraction in Africa. An example is Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula project which reached 2.5 million metric tons of production in 2023. Ivanhoe has allocated more than $1 billion of investment capital for this project.
洛比托走廊从大西洋港口洛比托延伸至刚果民主共和国和赞比亚的铜矿资源丰富的地区。这条重要的铜运输路线的扩建意味着更多的铜可以更快、更便宜地运到港口出口。
The Lobito Corridor extends from the Atlantic port of Lobito through the DRC and Zambia's copper-rich regions. This vital route for the shipment of copper being expanded means more copper can be brought to the port for export quicker and cheaper.
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（来源：中非商机）
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